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Itaú On The Fiscal Framework Lower House Approval

BRAZIL
  • Itaú have noted that overall, the proposal maintained the core content of the version presented by the rapporteur a week ago.Importantly, public spending growth for 2024 will now be capped at 70% of the increase in revenue, as opposed to the previous version, which set expenditure growth at 2.5% (in real terms).
  • In their view, this could reduce next year’s public expenditure by about BRL 20 billion. However, this change may be short-lived. In May 2024, the government will present an updated revenue forecast for the year. If such estimate is revised upwards, so will be the public expenditure growth, hence, the limit could once again be set at 2.5%.
  • The Lower House is expected to vote on outstanding amendments for the bill today, before it heads to the Senate. Speaker Rodrigo Pacheco will appoint a rapporteur for the proposal in the next few days, who will analyze the proposal and then present a draft with an assessment on the matter.
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