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Itaú Says Year-End 4.5% Inflation Forecast Has Downward Bias

MEXICO
  • Itaú’s end of year inflation forecast of 4.5% has a downside bias. Today’sinflation data is supportive of the central bank cutting rates in 4Q23. They expect a 25-bp rate cut in each of the last two months of the year, reaching a level of 10.75%.
  • Itaú noted that at the margin, headline and core inflation eased further. Assuming bi-weekly inflation in line with the five-year median variation in the second half of June, the seasonally adjusted three-month annualized headline inflation was 2.22% in June (from 2.96% in May), while core inflation stood at 3.74% (from 4.73%).
  • Core inflation sub-indexes calculated by the central bank, which help to break down the effect of supply (currency, wages and energy prices) and demand (output gap) shocks on prices, showed inflation closely associated with the output gap (fundamental inflation) fell further in 1H June to 5.61% (from 5.95% in 2H May).
  • Inflationsub-indexes associated to supply shocks of energy commodity prices (7.13% in 1H June, from 7.60% 2H May), currency (6.83%, from 7.27%) and salary (5.77%, from 5.94%) also fell.
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