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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessItaú See A Challenging Fiscal Consolidation Path
- Overall, Itaú view Colombia’s fiscal update as more reasonable in terms of the macroeconomic assumptions incorporated, thereby better reflecting the challenging path to correct large twin deficits. With political support in Congress fraying, the proposed structural reforms will likely be watered-down, limiting their fiscal costs.
- Weaker oil prices and rising expenditures constrain a fiscal consolidation path, despite additional revenues from prior tax reforms. The MoF’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan increased the 2023 growth forecast by 0.5pp to 1.8% (Itaú: 1.3%). For 2024, the economy is projected to slow slightly to 1.5% (Itaú: 1.4%), well below the 2.8% outlined in the February fiscal plan.
- The medium-term growth forecast remained unchanged at 3.2%. With lower-than expected oil prices (USD 78.6 in MTFF from USD 94.2 in the February fiscal plan), the 2023 nominal fiscal deficit estimate widened by 0.5pp to 4.3% of GDP (5.3% in 2022; 3.8% in February).
- The 2024 fiscal deficit was revised substantially higher to 4.5% of GDP from 3.6% expected in February (2.0% expected in 2022 MTFP). The updated nominal deficit path is consistent with the fiscal rule (a zero primary balance).
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.