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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessJ.P.Morgan: Equity Outflows Keeping Up The Pressure
J.P.Morgan note that “outflows expected to continue. After a brief reprieve in May, foreigners withdrew from non-China equities to the tune of $20bn in June, the fastest monthly pace since the Covid shock of March 2020. June’s outflow was 2.5 standard deviations higher than its recent historical average (for perspective, it was 2.2 s.d. in the June 2013 taper tantrum). With our economists noting rising U.S./Western Europe recession risks, and our latest U.S. growth forecast for 2Q22 coming perilously close to a recession, we expect equity outflows to continue. We have noted previously that we find equity flows to be a notable driver of price action in Asia FX. INR, TWD, THB most vulnerable. We refresh our assessment of equity outflows, evaluating risks of outflows based on valuations, exposure to the IT sector, positioning, sensitivity to global macro conditions, and our in-house stance for each country. We find that INR, TWD, and THB are the most vulnerable to continued outflows. We retain our long USD/INR and USD/KRW (via 12-month NDFs) recommendations, partly on the back of our view of continued equity outflows.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.