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J.P.Morgan: Proximity Of 30-Year Supply To CPI May Require Further Concession

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Ahead of Thursday’s 30-Year auction J.P.Morgan note that ”since the October auction, 30-Year yields have risen 39bp and currently sit near their cycle highs. As we noted in the past, 30-Year auction tails have been positively correlated with upside inflation surprises. In particular, the two largest auction tails of the last couple of years took place on the same days as the largest upside surprises to CPI, namely July 13 2021 and November 10 2021. Given low risk appetite and the fact that the auction takes place just hours after the September CPI release, we think it could require some additional concession in order to be digested smoothly, particularly if the CPI report comes in above expectations.”

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Ahead of Thursday’s 30-Year auction J.P.Morgan note that ”since the October auction, 30-Year yields have risen 39bp and currently sit near their cycle highs. As we noted in the past, 30-Year auction tails have been positively correlated with upside inflation surprises. In particular, the two largest auction tails of the last couple of years took place on the same days as the largest upside surprises to CPI, namely July 13 2021 and November 10 2021. Given low risk appetite and the fact that the auction takes place just hours after the September CPI release, we think it could require some additional concession in order to be digested smoothly, particularly if the CPI report comes in above expectations.”