-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI ASIA OPEN: December CPI Housing & Core Goods in Focus
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Post-PPI Highs Rejected
J.P. Morgan Views On RBI Post Yesterday's Policy Announcement
The US bank updates its views post yesterday's hawkish RBI hold. It has been expecting a gradual shift towards easier policy settings, see blow for more details:
- J.P. Morgan: "Recall, we had expected that monetary policy tightening would be dialed-back in a three-step process:The first step would be to ensure that overnight money-market rates – which had consistently been trading 30-35 bps above the policy rate since September 2023 – were better aligned with the policy rate. That process has begun in earnest in recent days with the RBI actively undertaking short duration variable rate repos and reverse repo operations. Consequently, overnight rates have eased discernibly in recent days and are better aligned with the policy rate.
- The second stage was a change in stance to “neutral”. While we had not expected a stance change at this policy, we believed the RBI’s tone, in general, might be softer with inflation tracking lower than it had envisaged (the RBI marked down its current quarter inflation from 5.2% to 5% and we expect the final outturn to be a shade even lower). Furthermore, the RBI projects 2024-25 inflation at 4.5% vis-a-vis 5.4% this fiscal year. In the event, though, the RBI hung tough on its tone, likely because its liquidity operations have already done some of the work by softening the effective policy rate.
- The third stage would be a cutting of rates. We don’t expect the first cut till June, and presuming the the Fed has moved by then. Today’s status quo on all fronts reinforces our view that any easing is going to be a second-half phenomenon. Furthermore, there is nothing that forces the RBI to change its stance to neutral before the first cut. It could always cut and change stance at the same meeting.
- All this reinforces our view that while liquidity operations will continue in the near term to ensure overnight money market rates stay closer to the policy rate, any policy rate easing will occur only later in the year.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.