MNI INTERVIEW: China Pork Prices To Weigh On CPI In 2025
MNI (BEIJING) - Increased supply will drive Chinese pork prices 10% lower in 2025 and weigh on inflation, following 2024’s 7.7% rise, an agricultural ministry advisor told MNI.
Adequate supply levels will also keep the typically volatile pork prices stable this year, said Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst at the Ministry of Agriculture's Meat Industry Early Warning Center, noting the decline will soften inflation slightly.
This year's prices were expected to fluctuate around CNY13-16 per kg, verses 2024's average of about CNY17.08 per kg. Pork is estimated to account for about 13% of the CPI’s food basket and 2.5% of the index overall.
Last year’s higher prices, which rose 42% between March and August before falling 18% by year-end, will drive increases in slaughter and output from 2024’s 703 million heads and 57.06 million tonnes of pork, while consumer demand will remain stable, Zhu added, noting several large firms will up production by 10-20%. Zhengbang Technology in Jiangxi province aims to lift operations to over 7 million head from 4.1 million, he noted.
Recent breeding efficiency improvements of 0.5-1 piglet per sow, as well as better disease control and prevention, will add to supply-side momentum, Zhu noted, who is also a professor at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
China's CPI rose 0.1% y/y in December, slowing for the fourth straight month from November's 0.2%, a nine-month low, though core inflation continued to rebound to 0.4%. The People's Bank of China will refocus efforts to push inflation higher this year. (See MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors)
LOWER RISK
Fu Linghui, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, recently told reporters demand for food consumption over Spring Festival at the end of January will promote a seasonal CPI recovery.
While pork prices had remained strong early this year, they will likely fall after the holiday, Zhu continued. Officials will rely on market mechanisms to smooth the industry’s function in 2025, ensuring producers have access to sector data – such as overall sow numbers – while encouraging firms to sell pigs on time to avoid overstocking, Zhu noted.