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Jan BRC Uptick Masks Continued Fall in Real Retail Sales

UK DATA
MNI (London)

UK BRC JAN RETAIL SALES LFL +3.9%; DEC +6.5%

UK BRC JAN RETAIL SALES TOT +4.2%; DEC +6.9%

  • UK BRC retail sales increased +3.9% (like-for-like) and +4.2% (total) in January, slowing from December and remaining weaker than the 3-month average growth rates.
  • This data is not adjusted for inflation. As such, the increase in sales in January implied a much larger decline in real sales. Heavy discounts in January were implemented to try to boost January sales, yet at the cost of company profit margins.
  • Low consumer confidence, and upcoming rises in household bills and mortgage rates continues to hamper spending appetite. Yet slowing inflation in 2023 should see spending begin to recover.
  • UK January retail data is due on Feb 17, after having recorded M/M contractions for 10 out of 12 months in 2022 and signalling a negative contribution to Q4 GDP. Lackluster spending outlooks remain a concern for the BOE but in line with projections.

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