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Jan Housing Wrap: Mild Rebound To End 2023

CANADA DATA
  • Canadian housing market had a mild resurgence before the end of the year with sales and starts posting surprise increases.
  • Home sales +8.7% in Dec, the first increase after 5 consecutive declines. New listings -5.1% MOM, the lowest level since June.
  • Sales-to-listing ratio above the long term average at +57.8% after hitting a 10 year low in Oct.
  • “Was the December bounce in home sales the start of the expected recovery in Canadian housing markets? Probably not just yet,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. "It was more likely just some of the sellers and buyers that were holding onto unrealistic pricing expectations last fall finally coming together to get deals done before the end of the year."
  • SAAR Housing starts +18% MOM to 249.3K units. National Bank forecasts starts to stabilize at 235K in 2024, a lower level compared to the past 2 years but higher than the historic average.
  • Teranet Housing Index -1.3% MOM not SA, the 4th consecutive decline and the largest drop since Nov 2022.
  • Mortgage rates have eased slightly; conventional 1Y mortgage rate is now +7.84% vs +8.09% in Nov.
  • While BoC decision to hold interest-rates came as expected on Wed, the Bank noted that the discussion has shifted from whether to hike to how long to hold. Growing discussions around the timing of cuts could lead to a resurgence in the housing market, similar to what was observed last spring.
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