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MNI Gilt Week Ahead - 24 February 2025

We look ahead to this week's key MPC speeches (the highlight being Ramsden) as well as auction previews for the week.
HomepageCEEMEAGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - UKUKMarketsStory

For the full document including more on upcoming MPC speeches and auction previews for the week ahead click here.

  • Today has seen the first day of the BOE’s Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference. Although interesting, there has been little to really impact macro market movements in the short-term. We will also hear from both Dhingra and Ramsden outside of the conference (this week). We think that the speech from Ramsden has the potential to be the most interesting for macro markets this week.
  • Ramsden is due to speak at Stellenbosch University in South Africa on Friday at 7:00GMT (as well as chairing the BEAR discussion). He voted in favour of the enacted cuts in August, November and February. He also dissented in favour of a sequential 25bp cut in December and favoured an earlier first cut (first voting for 25bp cuts in May and June). His previous speeches have been quite focused on how wage growth impacts service price inflation but we haven't heard directly from him since the BOE Agents' Pay Survey pointed to 3.7% pay growth in 2025 (the last time he spoke the early indications of the survey were pointing to 2-4% but this was narrowed to 3-4% in December when he first dovishly dissented). It would be a surprise if he did not vote for sequential cuts in the near-term, after voting for the December cut. We will be watching his Friday speech for any change in tone, as well as any indication on where he estimates the neutral rate to be.
  • Swati Dhingra is also due to speak twice this week: tonight at 18:00GMT on the state of UK monetary policy as well as on Wednesday at NIESR on "Trade fragmentation and monetary policy." Her views are unlikely to be market moving, however. She has been consistently dissenting on the dovish side and in February joined Mann in voting for a 50bp cut. She may repeat this 50bp cut vote in March - but whether she votes for a 25bp cut or a 50bp cut should make little difference to the wider MPC.
  • Last week was a busy data week with a slew of data releases. Headline inflation data was a bit higher than expected, while labour market data saw quantity data slightly stronger than expected, but wage growth slightly lower than expected. See our review of those data here. Retail sales data for January was also better than expected, as was the services PMI, but the manufacturing PMI fell almost 2 points more than expected to its lowest level since 2023.
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For the full document including more on upcoming MPC speeches and auction previews for the week ahead click here.

  • Today has seen the first day of the BOE’s Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference. Although interesting, there has been little to really impact macro market movements in the short-term. We will also hear from both Dhingra and Ramsden outside of the conference (this week). We think that the speech from Ramsden has the potential to be the most interesting for macro markets this week.
  • Ramsden is due to speak at Stellenbosch University in South Africa on Friday at 7:00GMT (as well as chairing the BEAR discussion). He voted in favour of the enacted cuts in August, November and February. He also dissented in favour of a sequential 25bp cut in December and favoured an earlier first cut (first voting for 25bp cuts in May and June). His previous speeches have been quite focused on how wage growth impacts service price inflation but we haven't heard directly from him since the BOE Agents' Pay Survey pointed to 3.7% pay growth in 2025 (the last time he spoke the early indications of the survey were pointing to 2-4% but this was narrowed to 3-4% in December when he first dovishly dissented). It would be a surprise if he did not vote for sequential cuts in the near-term, after voting for the December cut. We will be watching his Friday speech for any change in tone, as well as any indication on where he estimates the neutral rate to be.
  • Swati Dhingra is also due to speak twice this week: tonight at 18:00GMT on the state of UK monetary policy as well as on Wednesday at NIESR on "Trade fragmentation and monetary policy." Her views are unlikely to be market moving, however. She has been consistently dissenting on the dovish side and in February joined Mann in voting for a 50bp cut. She may repeat this 50bp cut vote in March - but whether she votes for a 25bp cut or a 50bp cut should make little difference to the wider MPC.
  • Last week was a busy data week with a slew of data releases. Headline inflation data was a bit higher than expected, while labour market data saw quantity data slightly stronger than expected, but wage growth slightly lower than expected. See our review of those data here. Retail sales data for January was also better than expected, as was the services PMI, but the manufacturing PMI fell almost 2 points more than expected to its lowest level since 2023.