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SWITZERLAND DATA: January CPI Dragged Lower By Energy

SWITZERLAND DATA
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Swiss CPI inflation printed in line with consensus at 0.4% Y/Y in January (vs 0.6% prior), and -0.1% M/M (vs -0.1% prior). Core CPI printed meaningfully above consensus, at 0.9% Y/Y (vs 0.6% cons; 0.7% prior) and 0.1% M/M (although bear in mind that the Bloomberg consensus for core only had 5 analyst estimates).

  • As we noted in our preview, a print of 0.4%Y/Y is not necessarily inconsistent with the SNB's 0.3% Y/Y inflation forecast for Q1 average inflation. It remains very possible CPI will come in lower in Feb/Mar, and indeed the SNB indeed expects CPI to be on a downtrend - shown by its expectation for further deceleration in Q2.
  • The main categories appear to indicate that the expected, notable drop in energy prices materialized, while across the other categories, developments were a bit mixed at first glance:
    • Domestic 1.0% vs 1.5% prior
    • Imported -1.5% vs -2.2% prior
    • Services 1.8% vs 1.9% prior
    • Goods -1.8% vs -0.9% prior
    • Energy and fuels -5.2% vs 2.4% prior
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Swiss CPI inflation printed in line with consensus at 0.4% Y/Y in January (vs 0.6% prior), and -0.1% M/M (vs -0.1% prior). Core CPI printed meaningfully above consensus, at 0.9% Y/Y (vs 0.6% cons; 0.7% prior) and 0.1% M/M (although bear in mind that the Bloomberg consensus for core only had 5 analyst estimates).

  • As we noted in our preview, a print of 0.4%Y/Y is not necessarily inconsistent with the SNB's 0.3% Y/Y inflation forecast for Q1 average inflation. It remains very possible CPI will come in lower in Feb/Mar, and indeed the SNB indeed expects CPI to be on a downtrend - shown by its expectation for further deceleration in Q2.
  • The main categories appear to indicate that the expected, notable drop in energy prices materialized, while across the other categories, developments were a bit mixed at first glance:
    • Domestic 1.0% vs 1.5% prior
    • Imported -1.5% vs -2.2% prior
    • Services 1.8% vs 1.9% prior
    • Goods -1.8% vs -0.9% prior
    • Energy and fuels -5.2% vs 2.4% prior