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SWITZERLAND DATA: January CPI Preview [1/2] - Energy To Drag Headline

SWITZERLAND DATA
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Swiss January CPI (released 07:30 GMT / 08:30 CET) is expected by consensus to decelerate 0.2pp to 0.4% Y/Y. On a sequential basis, consensus is for -0.1% M/M (-0.1% Dec) while core inflation is expected at 0.6% (0.7% Dec).

  • The December SNB conditional inflation forecast for Q1-25 is 0.3%. A print in line with consensus at 0.4%Y/Y would therefore be above that and need inflation to come in lower in Feb/Mar in order to not exceed the Q1 forecast. However, it is worth noting that the SNB does expect further deceleration ahead: for Q2 it forecasts CPI at 0.2%.
  • So if we get a 0.4%Y/Y print in January, it is not necessarily inconsistent with the SNB's quarterly path.
  • We note that consensus is also skewed to the downside, with the average Y/Y headline estimate standing at just 0.36%.
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Swiss January CPI (released 07:30 GMT / 08:30 CET) is expected by consensus to decelerate 0.2pp to 0.4% Y/Y. On a sequential basis, consensus is for -0.1% M/M (-0.1% Dec) while core inflation is expected at 0.6% (0.7% Dec).

  • The December SNB conditional inflation forecast for Q1-25 is 0.3%. A print in line with consensus at 0.4%Y/Y would therefore be above that and need inflation to come in lower in Feb/Mar in order to not exceed the Q1 forecast. However, it is worth noting that the SNB does expect further deceleration ahead: for Q2 it forecasts CPI at 0.2%.
  • So if we get a 0.4%Y/Y print in January, it is not necessarily inconsistent with the SNB's quarterly path.
  • We note that consensus is also skewed to the downside, with the average Y/Y headline estimate standing at just 0.36%.
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