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SWITZERLAND DATA: January CPI Preview [2/2] - Energy To Drag Headline

SWITZERLAND DATA
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  • Focus within the print lies on domestic and services inflation, with the latter's momentum (3m/3m Saar) measure having decelerated significantly during 2024 (to 0.89% from 2.38% Dec'23). A continuation of that trend should also see the Y/Y rate, currently at 1.60%, further decelerate.
  • Electricity prices will see around a 10% M/M decrease in January according to national electricity commission Elcom, which would have around a 0.2pp negative contribution to headline CPI -  and thus fully accounts for its expected deceleration in January.
  • However, there are only five analysts in the Bloomberg survey forecasting core CPI. And the median (and mean) of their headline CPI forecasts is 0.3%Y/Y (a tenth below the wider consensus). So it seems as though these analysts take into account the change in electricity prices with a further negative contribution from core items.
  • Additionally, the January release should also bring a basket reweighting - which we do not expect to bring a material impact on the overall inflation rates, though.
  • Looking further ahead, a UBS survey sees nominal wage growth at 1.4% in 2025 - similar to a KOF study looking at 1.6% (compared to around 1% average during the last 10 years according to UBS), so some pressure remains here.
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  • Focus within the print lies on domestic and services inflation, with the latter's momentum (3m/3m Saar) measure having decelerated significantly during 2024 (to 0.89% from 2.38% Dec'23). A continuation of that trend should also see the Y/Y rate, currently at 1.60%, further decelerate.
  • Electricity prices will see around a 10% M/M decrease in January according to national electricity commission Elcom, which would have around a 0.2pp negative contribution to headline CPI -  and thus fully accounts for its expected deceleration in January.
  • However, there are only five analysts in the Bloomberg survey forecasting core CPI. And the median (and mean) of their headline CPI forecasts is 0.3%Y/Y (a tenth below the wider consensus). So it seems as though these analysts take into account the change in electricity prices with a further negative contribution from core items.
  • Additionally, the January release should also bring a basket reweighting - which we do not expect to bring a material impact on the overall inflation rates, though.
  • Looking further ahead, a UBS survey sees nominal wage growth at 1.4% in 2025 - similar to a KOF study looking at 1.6% (compared to around 1% average during the last 10 years according to UBS), so some pressure remains here.