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EUROZONE DATA: January Flash PMIs Will Set The Tone For '25 Sentiment

EUROZONE DATA
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The January flash PMIs headline this week’s regional data calendar. Current Bloomberg consensus expects the Eurozone composite PMI little changed at 49.7 (vs 49.6 in December). The manufacturing component is expected to improve slightly to 45.4 (vs 45.1 prior), while services is seen at 51.5 (vs 51.6 prior).

  • At a country level, small composite improvements are expected in Germany (cons 48.3 vs 48.0 prior) and France (cons 47.7 vs 47.5 prior).
  • The PMIs will be one of the few signals of economic activity ahead of the ECB's Jan 30 decision, with Q4 flash GDP data not due until the morning of the rate announcement. While very unlikely to shift consensus away from a 25bp cut in January, the PMIs will help set the tone for sentiment with questions around the likely pace and magnitude of ECB rate cuts later this year including a potential return to neutral by mid-year (once again, we highlight significant dovish option flow in the ERM5 contract through this week).
  • US President Trump’s inauguration will just about fall into the January survey period (which usually closes 2 business days before the release date). However, with no specific policies imposed against the EU at this stage, we don’t expect this to meaningfully skew the results – uncertainty around trade policy, particularly amongst manufacturers, remains high.
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The January flash PMIs headline this week’s regional data calendar. Current Bloomberg consensus expects the Eurozone composite PMI little changed at 49.7 (vs 49.6 in December). The manufacturing component is expected to improve slightly to 45.4 (vs 45.1 prior), while services is seen at 51.5 (vs 51.6 prior).

  • At a country level, small composite improvements are expected in Germany (cons 48.3 vs 48.0 prior) and France (cons 47.7 vs 47.5 prior).
  • The PMIs will be one of the few signals of economic activity ahead of the ECB's Jan 30 decision, with Q4 flash GDP data not due until the morning of the rate announcement. While very unlikely to shift consensus away from a 25bp cut in January, the PMIs will help set the tone for sentiment with questions around the likely pace and magnitude of ECB rate cuts later this year including a potential return to neutral by mid-year (once again, we highlight significant dovish option flow in the ERM5 contract through this week).
  • US President Trump’s inauguration will just about fall into the January survey period (which usually closes 2 business days before the release date). However, with no specific policies imposed against the EU at this stage, we don’t expect this to meaningfully skew the results – uncertainty around trade policy, particularly amongst manufacturers, remains high.