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January Retail Sales Data Due, BRL Buoyed By Lower IPCA Inflation Data

BRAZIL
  • Local assets traded in a supportive manner on Tuesday following another downside surprise for IPCA inflation, reaching 4.65% Y/y. Furthermore, core inflation measures for both goods and services printed below expectations which analysts have pointed out as confirming a broad state of disinflation. DI swap rates fell between 10-23bps across the curve on the renewed optimism with verbal attacks from the administration on high rates likely to be maintained following the data. USDBRL closed with a 1.2% decline, registering the lowest close since June 2022. 4.9410, the Feb 2 low is the next target for the move.
  • Itaú noted that “overall, this reading continued to indicate a gradual disinflation outlook, with the headline decelerating in 12 months bearing in mind that, as a base effect, accumulated inflation should reach a level below 4% in June this year, and with core measures on a trajectory of gradual disinflation.”

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