MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: January Sampling And New Weights Watched For CPI Rents

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
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  • The key CPI rent series are expected to broadly maintain their moderating trend with 0.3% M/M seasonally adjusted increases in January.
  • It still has a little way to go though, with December’s weighted average of 0.31% M/M an acceleration from the 0.23% in Nov after what had been the first time since Apr 2021 that monthly rental inflation was below the 0.27/0.28% M/M averaged pre-pandemic.
  • Recall that last year’s January update (also with updated weights) saw a surprise one-off lurch higher for OER with 0.56% M/M in what turned out to be down to sample rotation. Any surprises here, especially ones not matched by the primary rents, would likely draw similar suspicion again.
  • More broadly, alternative indicators continue to suggest that the trend direction remains lower for rents as new leases feed into the CPI series; whilst we caution that the BLS’s new tenants rent index has recently had a habit of being revised higher, it is starting from a very low base of -2.4% Y/Y as of Q4.
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  • The key CPI rent series are expected to broadly maintain their moderating trend with 0.3% M/M seasonally adjusted increases in January.
  • It still has a little way to go though, with December’s weighted average of 0.31% M/M an acceleration from the 0.23% in Nov after what had been the first time since Apr 2021 that monthly rental inflation was below the 0.27/0.28% M/M averaged pre-pandemic.
  • Recall that last year’s January update (also with updated weights) saw a surprise one-off lurch higher for OER with 0.56% M/M in what turned out to be down to sample rotation. Any surprises here, especially ones not matched by the primary rents, would likely draw similar suspicion again.
  • More broadly, alternative indicators continue to suggest that the trend direction remains lower for rents as new leases feed into the CPI series; whilst we caution that the BLS’s new tenants rent index has recently had a habit of being revised higher, it is starting from a very low base of -2.4% Y/Y as of Q4.
A graph of a number of people Description automatically generated with medium confidence