MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 11

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JAPAN: Ishiba Looks Set For Re-Election As PM Despite Loss Of Majority

JAPAN
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It appears increasingly likely that Shigeru Ishiba will be able to secure re-election as prime minister later in November despite his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition losing its majority in the 27 Oct general election. A special session of the House of Representatives is expected to begin on 11 November. There, lawmakers will vote to confirm the PM. If no single candidate achieves an overall majority, the two with the most votes go to a run-off where the individual gaining the most votes becomes PM. 

  • The third-largest party in parliament, the libertarian Ishin no Kai, has indicated that it is disinclined to back Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). The fourth-largest party, the centrist Democratic Party for the People (DPP), confirmed on 31 Oct that it would vote for its leader Yuichiro Tamaki for PM.
  • Given the stance of Ishin and the DPP, Ishiba is likely to be able to rely on ~219 votes (LDP, Komeito, former LDP independents) compared to 148 for the CDP. This should ensure his re-election (in the short term at least, there remains the prospect of an internal LDP leadership challenge given the party's disastrous election performance).
  • While they will not be able to form a coalition gov't, the CDP's Noda and DPP's Tamaki will meet as early as 5 Nov to discuss joint policy positions. This could see the two form an opposition alliance that could see them wield more influence in parliamentary affairs. 
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It appears increasingly likely that Shigeru Ishiba will be able to secure re-election as prime minister later in November despite his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition losing its majority in the 27 Oct general election. A special session of the House of Representatives is expected to begin on 11 November. There, lawmakers will vote to confirm the PM. If no single candidate achieves an overall majority, the two with the most votes go to a run-off where the individual gaining the most votes becomes PM. 

  • The third-largest party in parliament, the libertarian Ishin no Kai, has indicated that it is disinclined to back Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). The fourth-largest party, the centrist Democratic Party for the People (DPP), confirmed on 31 Oct that it would vote for its leader Yuichiro Tamaki for PM.
  • Given the stance of Ishin and the DPP, Ishiba is likely to be able to rely on ~219 votes (LDP, Komeito, former LDP independents) compared to 148 for the CDP. This should ensure his re-election (in the short term at least, there remains the prospect of an internal LDP leadership challenge given the party's disastrous election performance).
  • While they will not be able to form a coalition gov't, the CDP's Noda and DPP's Tamaki will meet as early as 5 Nov to discuss joint policy positions. This could see the two form an opposition alliance that could see them wield more influence in parliamentary affairs.