JAPAN: Ishiba Vows To Stay On After Election Disaster, But PM On Thin Ice

Japan entered an unfamiliar period of political instability following the 27 October general election that delivered a stinging rebuke to PM Shigeru Ishiba and his governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). As we noted earlier (see 'JAPAN: JPY Weaker, With Political Uncertainty Just Beginning', 0752GMT) the vote marks the first time since the 2009 general election that the party has lost its majority in the House of Representatives. 

• Arguably, this time around the situation is more prone to instability. In 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan won an outright majority. However, this time the LDP remains the largest party and with its Komeito allies holds 215 seats, 18 short of the 233 required for a majority.
• As such, the next gov't will either be a minority LDP-Komeito administration reliant on outside support on a vote-by-vote basis, or a tripartite coalition with either the right-wing libertarian Ishin or the centrist Democratic Party for the People. Bringing either of these parties into gov't will need policy concessions from the LDP and there is no guarantee such an untested agreement would prove durable.
• Ishiba has claimed that he intends to remain in office, saying “In light of the severe criticism we have received from the public, we will endeavour to ensure that the national government remains stable,” However, eventually that decision may be taken out of his hands.
• Winning 233 seats had been talked of as the 'victory line' for the LDP. Falling well below this with just 191 seats could see internal opponents (such as his closest rival in the September leadership election Sanae Takaichi) begin to raise the prospect of yet another change in leader following such a disastrous result. 

Chart 1. House of Representatives Election Result, Seats