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JAPAN: LDP Contest Too Close To Call, But Electoral System Could Favour Koizumi

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With just over a week to go in the 27 Sep leadership contest for the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), it is still too close to call which candidate will win and succeed Fumio Kishida Japanese PM on 1 Oct. Opinion polling shows three frontrunners: hawkish former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba (67), former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (43), and fiscally conservative Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi (63). 

  • Polls have largely shown Ishiba with a narrow lead over Koizumi, with Takaichi in third. The LDP electoral system will prove crucial. In the first round, 367 votes come from LDP lawmakers (one for each Councillor/Representative). Another 367 votes go to the +1mn grassroots members.
  • To win in the first round, a simple majority is needed. Given current polling this seems unlikely. A second round would take place immediately after in this scenario. Here, the top two candidates from the first round enter a run-off, with 367 votes going to the LDP lawmakers, but the party member vote drops to 47, one for each of Japan's prefectures. Each prefecture's vote goes to the candidate who performed best among members from that area.
  • The Guardian reports, "While Ishiba could outperform his rival among rank-and-file members, “Koizumi is likely to receive significantly more support from parliamentary colleagues,” The opacity of the electoral system can throw out unexpected results, notably with Kishida's win in 2021 where he trailed in third place in polling only to emerge as the eventual winner.
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With just over a week to go in the 27 Sep leadership contest for the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), it is still too close to call which candidate will win and succeed Fumio Kishida Japanese PM on 1 Oct. Opinion polling shows three frontrunners: hawkish former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba (67), former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (43), and fiscally conservative Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi (63). 

  • Polls have largely shown Ishiba with a narrow lead over Koizumi, with Takaichi in third. The LDP electoral system will prove crucial. In the first round, 367 votes come from LDP lawmakers (one for each Councillor/Representative). Another 367 votes go to the +1mn grassroots members.
  • To win in the first round, a simple majority is needed. Given current polling this seems unlikely. A second round would take place immediately after in this scenario. Here, the top two candidates from the first round enter a run-off, with 367 votes going to the LDP lawmakers, but the party member vote drops to 47, one for each of Japan's prefectures. Each prefecture's vote goes to the candidate who performed best among members from that area.
  • The Guardian reports, "While Ishiba could outperform his rival among rank-and-file members, “Koizumi is likely to receive significantly more support from parliamentary colleagues,” The opacity of the electoral system can throw out unexpected results, notably with Kishida's win in 2021 where he trailed in third place in polling only to emerge as the eventual winner.