Japan's Opposition Field 213 Joint Candidates, LDP Expected To Retain Majority

Official campaigning for the October 31 election to Japan's powerful House of Representatives kicked off on Tuesday, with local media outlets circulating the final lists of candidates.

• As flagged before, PM Kishida and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are entering the campaign period with underwhelming support levels. The LDP retains a healthy lead in opinion polls, but its performance is relatively low by historical standards and many voters are still undecided.
• While the LDP are expected to win the election, their performance will be assessed against three numerical benchmarks. Securing a simple majority (233 seats) would allow the ruling party to pass legislation. A more ambitious target is reaching the "absolute majority" of 261 seats, which gives control over all standing committees and allows to pass legislation smoothly. Finally, a supermajority of 310 lawmakers can enact constitutional amendments and override the decisions of the upper house.
• The Japan Times cited a projection by political analyst Takuma Ohamazaki, which showed that the LDP were expected to retain 236 seats in the lower house, with Komeito set to retain all 29 seats. This means that although the LDP would suffer a heavy loss of 40 seats, they would still command a simple majority (243 lawmakers). Together with Komeito, they would retain an "absolute majority" in the lower house, while falling short of a much-desired two-thirds supermajority.
• The main opposition CDP together with the JCP, DPP, SDP and Reiwa have fielded jointly agreed candidates in 213 out of 289 single-seat constituencies. According to Mainichi's calculation, in 142 such districts a ruling party candidate will face off with a unified opposition candidate. A further 71 single-seat constituencies will witness three-way races including candidates from the right-leaning Nippon Ishin.

Source: NHK/Mainichi

*Note that many candidates are running both in a single-seat district and from a party list.

*The House of Representatives consists of 465 lawmakers, including 289 elected in single-seat districts and 176 elected by a party-list system of proportional representation.