Japan's Ruling Parties Confident Of Keeping Control Over Upper House

The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito are confident that they will exceed the threshold needed to retain majority in the House of Councillors in the wake of July 10 election, Sankei reported citing interviews with party bureaus across the country.

• Opinion polls have shown a steady increase in the approval ratings of PM Kishida and his Cabinet over the past few months amid broad satisfaction with his hawkish response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine and cautious stance on post-COVID return to normalcy.
• Polls of voting intentions have shown ruling parties widening the gap with the opposition, suggesting that the LDP/Komeito tandem is on track for a decisive win in July. Simmering discontent with rising costs of food and energy as well as scandals involving some LDP members are not expected to result in any major shift in public sentiment.
• A comfortable win for the LDP would strengthen the position of PM Kishida within the Liberal Democratic Party and give him three years of peace until the next general election, allowing him to focus on implementing his policy agenda, including the "new capitalism" framework. Conversely, a surprise defeat would significantly raise the odds of a snap LDP leadership poll.
• This summer, Japanese voters will elect 124 of the 245 Councillors by a mixed majoritarian/proportional system. Of these, 74 will be elected by first-past-the-post voting, while 50 will be chosen by D'Hondt proportional representation. In addition, one vacant seat (Kanagawa) will be filled, bringing the total number of seats up for grabs to 125.