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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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New Profile: Baa3[S]/BBB-[S]
- JCDecaux bonds ~2bp tighter on the day though largely flat on the S&P outlook upgrade which we had flagged as likely but largely expected after the Moody’s affirmation in March.
- We like the credit and think it has better momentum compared to peers like WPP given the latter’s rising leverage though both have potential catalysts on the horizon; JCDecaux’s TfL contract renewal (GBP 500mn eight-year deal signed in Aug 2015) and WPP’s potential sale of its residual 40% stake in Kantar as was reported in January.
- S&P expect 5-7% revenue growth in 2024 and 3-5% in 2025 (BBG consensus is for just over +7% and +5%) while S&P-adj leverage is expected to stay <3.5x (FY23 reported leverage of 1.5x) with positive FOCO projected for 2024-2025.
- S&P don’t expect any material debt-funded M&A and while they see dividends returning in 2025, they see these at lower levels in 2019.
- Upside pressure on S&P-adj leverage <3x and FOCF toward EUR 300mn; downside pressure on >3.5x or failure to generate consistently positive FOCF. Upgrade seen as unlikely in next 24 months.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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