Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy...>

US DATA PREVIEW: Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy noted September employment

data Friday "is going to be tough to parse, given the distortions from the

hurricanes."

- He adds Sept. employment at 8:30am ET Friday, Oct. 6 will be "distorted by the

hurricanes, but the distortions will be temporary and not have a lasting effect

on a labor market that remains solid. Given the nature of the data collection

for the establishment (payrolls) and household (unemployment rate) surveys, it

is quite possible that the 2 surveys will be affected in different ways by the

hurricane distortions in the months ahead." 

- Jefferies expects Sept. NFP jobs will "decline 45K, with private sector

payrolls down 25K," and "0.3% month/month increase in average hourly earnings

combined with a 2.5% YoY rise in AHE" and "a 4.5% unemployment rate," he said.