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Job Vacancies To Unemployed Bounce Back To Cycle Highs

CANADA
  • The ratio of Canadian job vacancies to unemployed bounced back to joint highs of 1:1 in September according to today’s SEPH report [first chart].
  • It reverses a decline since those highs from May/June, suggesting a slower cooling in labour demand than first thought.
  • It helps support the more recent bounce in employment in October along with continued skilled and non-skilled job shortages weighing on business activity [second chart].
  • Methodological differences and limited history make it hard to compare with the JOLTS equivalent in the US, although the relative increase since late 2020 suggests a frothier vacancies market in the US which still sits closer to 2:1, just one reason for a higher terminal rate.

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  • The ratio of Canadian job vacancies to unemployed bounced back to joint highs of 1:1 in September according to today’s SEPH report [first chart].
  • It reverses a decline since those highs from May/June, suggesting a slower cooling in labour demand than first thought.
  • It helps support the more recent bounce in employment in October along with continued skilled and non-skilled job shortages weighing on business activity [second chart].
  • Methodological differences and limited history make it hard to compare with the JOLTS equivalent in the US, although the relative increase since late 2020 suggests a frothier vacancies market in the US which still sits closer to 2:1, just one reason for a higher terminal rate.