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Jobless Claims Extend Recent Cooling Trend

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were a little higher than expected at a seasonally adjusted 238k (cons 235k) in the week to Jun 15, covering a payrolls reference period. It follows an upward revised 243k (initial 242k).
  • It sees the four-week average climb further to 233k (+6k) for the highest since Sep’23. It’s up from 210k in late April and the recent low of 201k in January, and compares with an average 218k in 2019.
  • NSA initial claims are below the 2023 figure for the time of year but otherwise higher than recent ‘typical’ years – see chart.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile extended their recent climb, rising to a seasonally adjusted 1828k (cons 1810k) in the week to Jun 8 after a downward revised 1813k (initial 1820k).
  • It leaves continuing claims only just below the recent high of 1829k from late Jan.
  • Combined, the data point to a continuation of the cooling in labor conditions seen in recent weeks.

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