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Jobless Claims Lower Than Expected With Potential Favorable Seasonal Adjustment

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at a seasonally adjusted 201k in the week to Sep 16, covering the payrolls reference period, after a minimally upward revised 221k (initial 220k) the week prior.
  • The four-week average takes another notable step lower to 217k (-7k) for its lowest since February and back in line with the 2019 average.
  • The drop in the SA figure looks on the generous side considering the NSA data were unchanged at 176k – see chart.
  • Continuing claims were also lower than expected, falling to 1662k (cons 1692k) in the week to Sep 9 from a downward revised 1683k (initial 1688k). This at a first glance also appears favorable compared to the NSA data only falling to 1651k from 1656k.

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