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With the +266k April nonfarm payrolls print, vs expectations of 1mn+, Fed Chair Powell's "string" of strong jobs reports ends with one (March)... And maybe not even that as March was revised down to +770k from +916k.
- This highly-anticipated but ultimately extremely disappointing report all but assures there will be no taper discussion at the June FOMC; we'll get the May employment report on Jun 4 before the June 17 FOMC decision/dot plot but that would have to make up for this miss and then some before there was any talking about talking about slowing asset purchases.
- Notably unemp rate higher (first deterioration since Apr 2020); manufacturing payrolls contracted unexpectedly as well.
- Not an unambiguously bad report, though tough to find a big enough silver lining to offset the dreadful headline miss. Average hourly earnings +0.7%, a big beat vs flat expected; Y/Y rising too (+0.3%) and ave weekly hours rose. Participation rate rising too (61.5% to 61.7%), and U6 fell to 10.4% from 10.7%.