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JOLTS Kickstarts Slide In Fed Rate Expectations

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates have slipped from 24bps to 21bps for tomorrow’s FOMC decision post-JOLTS, moving with equities continuing to slide.
  • This is now seen as the terminal rather than a cumulative >30bps of hikes with June pre-data, and is seen being fully unwound in Sep rather than Nov.
  • Cuts to year-end mount, with the first cut now near fully priced for Nov again with 24bp to 4.59% (-20bp on the day) and 45bp of cuts from current to 4.38% (-21bp on the day).
  • These year-end rates were seen last week before upside surprises in the Q1 advance for GDP Prices and core PCE but before that were last seen in mid-April.
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