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JP Morgan Estimate Core Inflation at +6.5% Y/Y in January

POLAND
  • Like in previous months, food prices came in benignly, advancing 0.9% m/m (JPM had expected 1.3% m/m), leading to a drop in annual food CPI to 4.9% y/y which JP Morgan say explain the downside surprise in the headline figure vs their forecast.
  • By mechanically extracting the contributions of non-core items, JPM say they are left with a residual which suggests core prices were up 0.5% m/m. If confirmed, this implies core CPI falling to 6.5% y/y in January from 6.9%.
  • JPM expect that the NBP will continue to deliver a hawkish message, showing little enthusiasm for easing policy near term. In 2H24 they think that absent any major price adjustments in utilities, the NBP could relax a bit. They see the NBP adjusting rates lower by 50bps in 4Q (2 x 25bps) to 5.25%. However, risks are skewed for a more hawkish delivery, JPM note.
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