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JP Morgan Expect 75bp Cut in October, ING See Smaller 25bp Move

HUNGARY
  • The NBH are likely to continue cutting in October, JPM say. Data-wise, Hungary has space to continue cutting rates: underlying inflation is running near target, demand is poor, FX is relatively stable, and the current account has become balanced. The only deterrent is how cautious the NBH wants to be in the face of ever present risks, they say.
  • They expect the NBH will cut the base rate by 75bps in each of October/November and then reduce to 50bp pace from December. Ex-post real rates will become even more positive, as they expect CPI to fall to slightly below 7% at the end of the year.
  • Meanwhile, ING say that the overwhelming majority of the deceleration in today’s headline inflation figure comes from base effects, while the monthly repricing remains quite strong. Thus, they stick to their call for only a 25bp cut at the October rate-setting meeting.
  • If there is a de-escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian war in the coming weeks and market sentiment and energy prices improve significantly, there could be room for up to 50bp of easing, they say.
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