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JP Morgan Expect Further USDTRY Upside Based on Current Policy Mix

TURKEY
  • Based on the current setting of policies, JP Morgan expect further USDTRY upside. USDTRY is unlikely to find stability without further policy adjustment, JPM say. They believe the correct framework for assessing the lira’s outlook is what conditions need to be met for capital flows to turn in the lira’s favor.
  • They believe a return to more active management of the currency over the tourism season would be sufficient to stabilise the lira, but this looks unlikely to bring durable stability.
  • The fast recovery of FX reserves offers CBRT some flexibility in this respect and, heading into the tourism season, active management of the currency could be relatively effective, in JPM’s view.
  • However, importantly, this would remain just a tactical fix, while attracting foreign capital would likely prove necessary in coming months.
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