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JP Morgan Maintain Year-End Inflation Forecast at 65%

TURKEY
  • After the forecasted acceleration until May 2024, JP Morgan expect a slower and protracted disinflation process in 2H24 and potentially afterwards assuming stickier services prices.
  • They maintain their 2023 year-end forecast at 65% and expect inflation to peak at 73% in May 2024 and end 2024 at 40% with risks on the upside. Since they see persistent inflation, JPM forecast further monetary tightening to address inflationary pressures.
  • As elevated services inflation suggests protracted disinflation process in 2H24, JPM see upside risks to their end-2023 policy rate forecast of 35% and their end-2024 policy rate forecast of 45%.

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