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SOUTH AFRICA: JP Morgan Retain 4.5% Budget Deficit Projection Ahead of MTBPS

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

JP Morgan say softer corporate revenue and a somewhat higher wage bill risk fiscal slippage in FY25/26, yet they expect incremental tax measures and savings from under-spending to pare back the fiscal impact. JPM therefore retain their projection for a 4.5% deficit in FY25/26 versus the 4.3% MTBPS target.

  • They expect the revenue target to be trimmed by ZAR 12bln as incremental tax measures mitigate the impact and see expenditure marginally increased by ZAR 8.8bln, in part for the wage bill. They also think the significant fiscal risks from a potential Transnet package, SRD grant increase and NHI are not likely to materialise in this budget.
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JP Morgan say softer corporate revenue and a somewhat higher wage bill risk fiscal slippage in FY25/26, yet they expect incremental tax measures and savings from under-spending to pare back the fiscal impact. JPM therefore retain their projection for a 4.5% deficit in FY25/26 versus the 4.3% MTBPS target.

  • They expect the revenue target to be trimmed by ZAR 12bln as incremental tax measures mitigate the impact and see expenditure marginally increased by ZAR 8.8bln, in part for the wage bill. They also think the significant fiscal risks from a potential Transnet package, SRD grant increase and NHI are not likely to materialise in this budget.