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JP Morgan Revise Higher Their Year-End NBH Rates Forecast

HUNGARY
  • JP Morgan see the one-off adjustments to telecommunication tariffs explaining the jump in core (+11.3% m/m). This appears to be a one-off, but it also illustrates the risk of backward-looking price indexation, as some of the operators quoted 2023 inflation as the reason for high increases.
  • They expect that the best of the disinflationary impulse from goods is now over, and some firmer pace should be expected in goods. They see a local trough or inflation in April at 3.5%, before some volatility and a cyclical low of 3.2% in September, helped by base effects.
  • They expect the NBH to cut by 50bps in April, but now see higher year-end rates than before. They then see another 50bps cut in May, but given the firmness in core CPI and successive pricing out of DM easing, they now think the NBH can shift to a 25bps/meeting pace as early as June, and bring rates to 6% at year-end (5.5% previously).
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