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MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 2

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JP Morgan See Soft CPI Raising Odds of Sept Rate Cut

POLAND
  • On today’s CPI release, JP Morgan write that food prices fell substantially more than they expected, even when accounting for seasonality. With food prices moving sequentially at a near-zero pace, food inflation has plenty of scope to decline further. Energy, however, offset the drop in food.
  • Seasonally adjusted, they estimate core prices were up 0.35% m/m and 4.5-5% annualized, a significant loss of momentum from just a few quarters ago.
  • Lower-than-expected CPI increases the odds of NBP cutting in September. After today’s downside surprise, the probability of inflation falling to single digits in the next print has increased.
  • They now forecast August at 10% (down from 10.2%) and could revise lower if the final details of the July CPI demonstrate that the decline was quite broad-based within core. The odds of a 25bp cut in September, instead of October (their base case), have also increased.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

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