MNI: BOC Says Has Made Progress on Inflation, Must Finish Job

BOC SAYS HAS MADE PROGRESS ON INFLATION, MUST FINISH JOB

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JP Morgan View Ahead of the Sep MPC Meeting

BOE
  • JP Morgan notes that the MPC see QE and forward guidance as "its active tools for now" and that recent commentary has pointed to "risks of more stimulus in November are rising, and this week's September meeting will offer further clues on where the committee is."
  • Expects that any dissent will be in the form of votes for more QE not rate cuts and note that Saunders could vote for more QE "potentially as soon as this week"
  • JP Morgan states that it forecasts no easing at present but the odds of a QE extension "in the coming months are rising". JP Morgan also states that it "will revisit [its] forecast after seeing the BoE's communications from its meeting this week."
  • On Brexit, JP Morgan states that "The BoE will be looking at the elevated risks of a no-deal Brexit as a scenario in which it could ramp up purchases again with similar effect. This opens up the possibility of more QE later this year, with Bailey stating the BoE will be reviewing its Brexit assumptions at the November meeting."
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