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JPM: Core CPI To See Modest Step Up In November

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan forecast core CPI at 0.32% M/M in Nov, “a modest step up from the recent average”.
  • “We think that the rent measures in the CPI will continue to moderate over time given cooling in related industry figures. This moderating trend hasn’t been evident in the data from the past couple of months, but we look for softer readings for November, with tenants’ rent increasing 0.35% and OER rising 0.34%.”
  • “Elsewhere in housing, there have been some noisy prints for lodging prices lately, and we forecast a 0.7% gain for prices in November to undo part of October’s 2.5% decline.”
  • Used vehicle prices are seen “basically unchanged” in November as industry figures suggest that the recent downward trend “will take a break (likely temporarily)”. “New vehicle prices, meanwhile, have been more up-and-down lately, and we look for a 0.6% increase.”
  • They expect another flat public transportation reading.
  • “Health insurance prices jumped in October as the BLS started incorporating updated related source data and we look for another increase in November to help push overall medical care prices up 0.3% in November. We expect a continuation of the recent downward trend for communication prices, with a 0.1% tick down in November.”
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