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JPM: CPI At Low End Of Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan see core CPI at 0.45% M/M, towards the lower end of the relatively narrow surveyed range around consensus of 0.5% M/M.
  • Rent measures are expected to show continued firmness, “with tenants rent up 0.41% and owners’ equivalent rent rising 0.44%”. Lodging prices should be more modest than the jumps for Oct and Nov.
  • Vehicle prices are likely to see additional increases but with moderation relative to the past few months (new cars +0.5%, used +2.4%).
  • Other main categories are seen as more mixed, with apparel unchanged after jumping in Nov, no change in communication prices after a modest decline and “medical care prices are expected to keep rising somewhat, up another 0.2% in December”.
  • Headline CPI is seen up 0.4% M/M, pushing the Y/Y rate up 0.2pps to 7.0%. Energy CPI should fall -1.7% M/M whilst food rises 0.7% M/M.
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