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JPM Drops May Inflation Estimates, Sees Mixed Services Price Pressure

EUROZONE

Based on today's national flash inflation data, JPMorgan downgrades their Eurozone flash May HICP forecast to 6.1% Y/Y (-0.1% M/M) vs 6.4% in their prior estimate.

  • They see core at 5.4% Y/Y (0.2% M/M), down from their previous 5.6% forecast. BBG survey currently sits at 6.5% headline, 5.5% core, which are not reflective of today's figures.
  • They write that excluding the impact of the new transportation ticket in Germany, Eurozone core inflation was likely closer to 5.5% Y/Y / 0.3% M/M.
  • "The details across countries generally suggest that the trend down in core goods price inflation has continued in May, while the data were mixed for services."
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