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JPM: Hard To See January Meeting Used To Signal Easing In March

CANADA
  • JPMorgan see the BoC on hold at 5% with spotlight “on what it says and not on what it does. Our focus will be on updated growth and inflation forecasts, any adjustment to the forward guidance, and the language in the press conference.”
  • “Recent comments have pushed back against an early pivot from the Bank’s current hawkish guidance. Considering the current inflation backdrop it’s hard to see the Bank using the January meeting to change the guidance and signal that it intends to ease policy at the subsequent meeting in March.”
  • JPM continue to expect a first cut in 2Q24 as “by then the Bank will have a much better sense of the downward trend in inflation and wage growth that we anticipate.”
  • “Some important aspects of the 4Q BOS point to continued normalization. The survey showed that inflation expectations continued to ease, albeit gradually, and both expected corporate pricing behavior and expected wage growth point to more normalization. More firms are reporting that the size of their price changes will continue to moderate over the next 12 months on the back of weaker demand and heightened competition and average expected wage increases continue to trend downward.”
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