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JPM: High Bar For More Tightening But BoC To Maintain Hawkish Bias

CANADA
  • JPMorgan note that “overall, the continued cooling in some key labor market indicators supports our view that the BoC will stay on hold next week.”
  • “We expect the BoC to look past the quarterly growth turbulence. The 1.5%ar tracking rebound suggested by output-based monthly real GDP in the current quarter matches our forecast and gives the BoC some leave to look through the weakness in 3Q.”
  • “Plain-speaking Governor Macklem noted in a speech recently, “In short, the excess demand in the economy that made it too easy to raise prices is now gone.” While the rhetoric suggests the bar is high for more tightening, we expect the Bank to maintain the hawkish bias as underlying inflation is still above the target range even if moving in the right direction.”
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