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JPM: High Probability Of June BoC Cut

CANADA
  • JPMorgan see headline CPI of 0.2% M/M (SA) in April, translating to a 2.7% Y/Y increase after 2.9% in March.
  • They see CPI ex food & energy at 0.2% M/M for 2.7% Y/Y, also a two-tenth moderation.
  • “We expect some of the bounce up in the trend pace of services CPI will be reversed in April, although some special cost dynamics were triggered last month”.
  • Of specific note, “An annual adjustment in minimum wage rates across all the Atlantic provinces took effect on April 1 and we expect the change may boost monthly costs for food purchased from restaurants and household operations. In addition the federal government officially raised its alcohol excise tax on April 1 to 2%. We expect easing price gains in other categories will more than offset those irregular cost pressures.”
  • Assuming they see this expected deceleration in core CPI “we continue to place a high probability on a policy rate cut at the June meeting.”
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