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JPM: No Longer Expect Additional Hike After Latest CPI Ease

CANADA
  • JPM expect the BoC to "lean into the notable ease in September inflation measures" and leave rates on hold on Wednesday as balances the risks of over- and under-tightening.
  • “While inflation metrics have been noisy in recent months the latest reading was largely favorable", but “Concerns remain so the Bank will continue to communicate a tightening bias."
  • In particular, "Wage growth remains elevated across a variety of sectors and above rates that would be consistent with the 2% inflation target. And the latest Business Outlook Survey yielded hawkish results.”
  • “The Bank is likely to point to moderating growth as convincing evidence that tighter monetary policy is working to bring supply and demand back into balance." JPM forecast inflation is on a sustainable downward path and see 5% as the terminal rate
  • Q3 headline CPI still averaged above the BoC’s 3.3% forecast from July, “although the downside surprise trimmed the troubling strength compared with the Bank’s estimate. […] That said, core services prices are still contributing about twice as much as the pre-pandemic average while core goods prices are contributing more than three times as much”.
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