CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.0968 THURS VS 7.0959

VAST MAJORITY OF FOMC SAY PRUDENT TO SLOW QT FAIRLY SOON

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation 3.93% In March, Lowest In 9 Months

MNI Brief: China Targets Standards Update To Support Trade-ins

MNI BRIEF: Fitch China Outlook Downgrade Regrettable - MoF

CHINA MAR CPI +0.1Y/Y VS MEDIAN +0.4%; FEB +0.7% Y/Y: NBS

MNI: US MAR TREASURY BUDGET -236.5B

US Treasury Auction Calendar

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPM Now Expects 75bps Hike in November

SARB
  • As we had expected, the MPC’s focus on risks emanating from accelerated tightening in global financial conditions and averting a less favorable inflation-growth trade-off (if it didn’t act promptly) took center stage. Two of the MPC members (likely including the governor) preferred a 100bp move today, but the three-member slim majority stuck to a 75bp move as expected.
  • We now expect a 75bp hike also in November (previously 50bp), while we retain a further 50bp increase in 1Q23, lifting the terminal rate to 7.5% (from 7.25%). In our view, this week’s hawkish message from the FOMC will not go by unnoticed by the SARB in as far as the resultant pressure on the rand continues to skew inflation risks to the upside.
  • We now consider the SARB’s near-term inflation projection as too benign, risking upside surprises relative to its forecasts when it next meets in November.
  • With a neutral policy rate at around 6.75%-7%, we project a terminal rate of 7.50%.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.