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JPM Offer A Consensus View On Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan expect nonfarm payrolls growth of 200k in Dec (cons 200k) of which 175k comes from private industries.
  • They see continued signs of strength in the labor market and strong labor demand, albeit what would be the softest month of job gains in 2022. They judge this on jobless claims plus the Conference Board’s labor market differential showing pretty favorable responses from consumers. Furthermore, while business survey data generally have been downbeat lately, some surveys show their employment measures outperforming other key components.
  • They see AHE growth of 0.4% M/M, a step down from the boomy 0.6% in Nov but still solid growth as it appears that tightness in the labor market is keeping upward pressure on wages.
  • While firms still seem to want a lot of workers, they may be trimming hours if demand is softening, which could see the average workweek hold at 34.4 hours after it ticked down in November, generating a 0.1% increase in aggregate hours.
  • U/E rate seen sideways at 3.7%, with solid job growth combined with a tick up in the participation rate reversing the decline in Nov.
  • The upcoming employment report also will contain annual revisions, which will update the seasonally adjusted household survey data for the most recent five years. This will only reflect updated seasonal factors and the underlying data (before seasonal adjustment) will not change.
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