MNI BRIEF: US Budget Deficit $367B In Nov; FYTD Record $624B

MNI BRIEF: Former BOC Dep Beaudry Sees 2.75%-3% Rate In 2025

BOC WILL BE CONSDIERING FURTHER RATE CUTS

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: US NOV TREASURY BUDGET -$366.8B

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BTP Auction on Thursday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -1.42M TO 422.0M DEC 06 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPM on CNB and CZK

CZECHIA
  • CNB hiking cycle has most likely peaked. The Governor and the board’s majority preference to stay on hold is obvious.
  • Two months ago this preference would look out of touch, but the macro picture has rotated sufficiently that JPM believes there is indeed a macro case to stay on hold.
  • The only potential challenge comes from financial markets: in a context of energy supply uncertainty, risk aversion towards EM could trigger severe FX weakness in CEE.
  • This is the main reason JPM still had some marginal additional hikes in the forecast.
  • Yet, neither is the CNB as averse to selling large chunks of FX to defend the Crown as JPM thought, nor is the market as keen to challenge the central bank.
  • In conclusion, the central bank’s preference to keep rates on hold appears consistent with the macro background and is likely to get limited challenge from financial markets.
  • JPM therefore now sees 7% as the peak in this hiking cycle, with rates on hold until late into 2023.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.