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JPM On Core PCE Estimate

US
  • JPMorgan note "pretty broad-based" strength in the CPI in May, including strong readings on both tenants’ rent (0.63%) and owners’ equivalent rent (0.60%), another jump in airfares (12.6%), and increases in both new and used vehicle prices (1.0% and 1.8%, respectively).
  • "Some of this recent strength likely will indeed (eventually) prove to be transitory, but we are also seeing strength in some CPI categories that are not obviously being influenced by temporary factors."
  • JPM initially calculate core PCE as rising +0.40% M/M on the back of the details, which would see the Y/Y rate ease a bit from 4.9% to 4.7% Y/Y.
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