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JPM on SARB

SOUTH AFRICA
  • JPM base case projection remains for a 50bp move to take the policy rate to 5.25%, even as May inflation jumped to 6.5%oya and probably will have risen above 7% in June.
  • The SARB does not appear to judge itself to have lagged in the tightening cycle, given its start already in 4Q21.
  • Despite a deterioration in the inflation outlook JPM expects the SARB’s QPM repo-rate projection to move up only 30bp for end-22 to about 5.7%, which does not signal a need for accelerated tightening.
  • Growth risks for 2H22 are also increasingly tilted to the downside.
  • Therefore, JPM maintains our projection for 50bp increases at each of the upcoming three MPC meetings to take the policy rate to 6.25% at end-22.
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  • JPM base case projection remains for a 50bp move to take the policy rate to 5.25%, even as May inflation jumped to 6.5%oya and probably will have risen above 7% in June.
  • The SARB does not appear to judge itself to have lagged in the tightening cycle, given its start already in 4Q21.
  • Despite a deterioration in the inflation outlook JPM expects the SARB’s QPM repo-rate projection to move up only 30bp for end-22 to about 5.7%, which does not signal a need for accelerated tightening.
  • Growth risks for 2H22 are also increasingly tilted to the downside.
  • Therefore, JPM maintains our projection for 50bp increases at each of the upcoming three MPC meetings to take the policy rate to 6.25% at end-22.