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JPM See 1st Round as Favouring a Move to Centrist Politics to Gain the Election

BRAZIL
  • JPM believe the first round results should favour a move towards the center to gain the election. It is too close to call the result but odds still look slightly in favour of Lula. It will be important to see if Bolsonaro will gain momentum in coming polls.
  • The risks around political polarization, with non-acceptance of the ballot results and street riots, must be monitored. Up until now, no occurrences suggest that such tail risk has risen substantially over the past few days.
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  • JPM believe the first round results should favour a move towards the center to gain the election. It is too close to call the result but odds still look slightly in favour of Lula. It will be important to see if Bolsonaro will gain momentum in coming polls.
  • The risks around political polarization, with non-acceptance of the ballot results and street riots, must be monitored. Up until now, no occurrences suggest that such tail risk has risen substantially over the past few days.