MNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors

MNI BRIEF: German Insolvency Rate Slows, 2025 Pickup Expected

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +4.2% V YR AGO MO

US Q3 REV NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY +2.2%; Y/Y +2.0%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPM See NBP Unlikely to React to Soft CPI

POLAND
  • JP Morgan note another large downside surprise for Polish inflation – with the release driven by food and energy. Given that food weighs 27% in the basket, this accounts for most of the decline in CPI.
  • They estimate that core prices were up 0.35% M/M in December, fully in line with their forecast. If confirmed, this implies core CPI falling to 7% Y/Y in October, from 7.3%, also in line with forecast.
  • They expect inflation will fall abruptly in early 2024, mainly on very favorable energy base effects, as last year’s massive energy tariff adjustments are followed by frozen prices this year. Food inflation still has plenty of room to decline, and they see it at 3% by March. They expect core CPI to oscillate between 4-4.5% in most of 2024, which should push CPI back to the 4-5% range in the remainder of the year.
  • On the NBP, they see it as unlikely to react to the downside surprise. The NBP is more likely to use the last couple of downside surprises as an argument to justify it did well to cut in September/October, and less so to justify a new dovish impetus. Still, with core CPI in the low 4s in late 2024, we see some room for the NBP to cautiously deliver two 25bp cuts in 4Q24.
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.